Doomsday: Inside Job

Earth is humanity’s cradle, but by no means can it completely harbour us from harm. Many risks threaten individual lives, but there are some catastrophic enough to wipe out entire species. Is it possible for the prolific human species to face extinction?

We knew the world would not be the same ... "Now I have become Death, the destroyer of worlds"...I suppose we all thought that, one way or another.

J. Robert Oppenheimer, director of the Manhattan Project

History
In 1933, Leó Szilárd proposed that free neutrons could be used to start a chain atomic reaction. In 1938, Otto Hahn and Fritz Strassmann found barium in a uranium solution bombarded with neutrons. The next year, World War II started, during which the United States undertakes the Manhattan Project. It produced the first working nuclear weapons (atomic bombs), one of which dropped on Hiroshima, Japan and another on Nagasaki (pictured above). These attacks caused Japan to surrender, ending the War.

During the Cold War era, designs for nuclear weapons, as well as thermonuclear (hydrogen) bombs, were disseminated to other countries, including the USSR, China, North Korea, India, Pakistan, Iran, Iraq and Libya. After going through scares such as the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NNPT), reducing the proliferation of nuclear weapons, was put in force in 1970. There are also treaties in place for chemical weapons (Chemical Weapons Convention, 1997) and biological weapons (Biological Weapons Convention, 1975).

In 1974, Stephen Hawking proposed that a black hole shrinks over time and eventually evaporates. In 2010, the Large Hardon Collider, a particle accelerator, was put into operation after a need for repairs in 2008 delayed its starting. At the time, it was criticised that the Collider would produce miniature black holes that could suck in the Earth.

It gets political
While humans try their best to fend for themselves, they find that some things are better settled acting collectively. Whether it is instilling a sense of security or making people's labour more productive, they form societies and leave it to the government to handle. Sometimes, nations of different people find that their differences clash, resulting in war.

Up until the 20th century, these conflicts did not affect the larger scheme of things much. Now with developments in technology resulting in chemical and biological weapons, mass casualties can result from conflict, many not even enlisted in a military force. With the development of nuclear weapons, there arises a very real potential of destroying the Earth as a habitable place.

With theories like mutual assured destruction (MAD) in mind, humans feel the need to become diplomatic. Through a process of negotiation and compromise, mutual agreements and treaties are enacted, allowing the human race as a whole to feel safe, expecting that such weapons of mass destruction (WMD), as well as other questionable items and processes, are not used in the next war (if any), or even at all. There still arises the risk of rogue states or even individuals using such technology, and it is with this fear that humanity lives, until compromise fosters a government with enough coverage to properly handle such risks.

Into the unknown
It is with experience that the base of human knowledge grows. For such experience to survive in a more permanent record, though, the experiencing individual still needs to survive long enough to record it. With so many unknowns still left in the world, there is the risk that reckless or even innocent investigation can produce dire consequences for the world. Not only is such knowledge lost to posterity, with the increasing complexity of such investigations, this risk grows.

By simply halting any tampering with the world, tampering for the cause of scientific and other inquiry, this risk can be reduced substantially. However, such knowledge can only be learned the hard way. In addition, a technology currently in use and considered safe may actually not be so. By stopping the learning process, human ingenuity stagnates and human health and safety may start to decline. Thus, a fine balance needs to be struck, and whether the one decided on is a good one can only be found out after the fact...

Consequences of human disagreement
Indeterminate.

Consequences of human recklessness
Indeterminate.

Some conclusions

• 2012-compatible? Yes
• Will the world end with a bag or whimper? Indeterminate
• Armageddon or Ragnarok? Indeterminate

Bibliography

• Bungie, Inc. (2010), 'Haven terror bombing kills two million', Halo: Reach, Limited Edition, computer game, Bungie, Inc., Bellevue.
• History's Secrets: Atomic Bomb (2009), television program, National Geographic Channel.
• Naked Science: Hawking's Universe (2009), television program, National Geographic Channel.
• Stephen Hawking and the Theory of Everything (2008), television program, National Geographic Channel.
• The Telegraph (London) (2010), 'The Hadron Collider ... made simple(r)', Sydney Morning Herald, 31 March, viewed 31 August 2011, <http://www.smh.com.au/technology/sci-tech/the-hadron-collider--made-simpler-20100331-re04.html>.
• United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs (2011), United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs, USA, viewed 31 August 2011, <http://www.un.org/disarmament/>.

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