Doomsday: Pandemic

Earth is humanity’s cradle, but by no means can it completely harbour us from harm. Many risks threaten individual lives, but there are some catastrophic enough to wipe out entire species. Is it possible for the prolific human species to face extinction?

It is not good to be sick. At this day and age, the practice of medicine ensures that people stand a good chance of survivng all common illnesses. However, some diseases do pop up which no medical literature covers and against which no treatments exist. The burden then falls to the rest of society to contain its spread as a pandemic as scientists work frantically to develop a cure...

History
The Bible describes ten 'plagues' that befell the citizens of Ancient Egypt. Subjecting the Israelites to slavery, the Jewish God was accounted to have exacted His vengeance. The tenth plague, which finally convinced the Pharaoh to release the Israelites, was one which killed all firstborn sons in the kingdom. It is known that it was common practice to feed the firstborn son a double helping of grain, and with the ruin of their crops from the previous hailstorm and locust plagues, they needed to draw from supplies stored underground.

The year 2002 saw an outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). It killed 770 people and had a mortality rate of 10% of cases (by comparison, seasonal influenza has a 1% mortality rate). Thanks to a swift and effective international response, the outbreak was prevented from unfolding into a global pandemic.

Throughout the 20th century, three influenza pandemics killed more than 100 million people. A particularly notorious one is the Spanish Flu (called the French Flu in Spain) outbreak of 1918. There were two notable flu outbreaks in the 2000s, H5N1 avian (bird) flu in 2007 and H1N1 swine flu in 2009. The former had a mortality rate of 60%, while the latter proved to be milder. The international response also prevented these from spreading worldwide.

Transmission lines
A pathogen (disease-causing substance) can enter the human body through several vectors:

• Physical contact with a contagious person infected with the pathogen, or with a surface they touched, or a surface that naturally harbours the pathogen
• Sharing of bodily fluids (e.g. blood, semen), or items containing said bodily fluids, with an infectious person
• Inhaling aerosol ejected by an infectious person

Several bacteria, fungi and viruses are known pathogens. When they enter the body, they disrupt its normal function. This gives the sensation of being sick as both body cells get hurt (e.g. where a virus hijacks the cell's machinery to replicate itself) and the body raises defenses (e.g. fever) against it.

Mouldy bread

Mouldy bread.

It is common knowledge that bread that is kept fresh for too long eventually starts growing mould. Certain types of mould can grow on grain stored underground and produce very powerful mycotoxins. A few molecules of these toxins are enough to kill a human.

A-choo!

The influenza virus spreads through both persistence on surfaces and aerosol. It may be in any of several forms classified into influenza A, B and C, with influenza A further classified according to the proteins haemagglutinin (H) and neuraminidase (N) on its surface.

This virus is notorious for its ability to mutate (change form). This makes it difficult for both the body to prepare antibodies and vaccine factories to prepare vaccines against it, as both target the ever-changing H and N structures on the virus' surface. Sometimes, the virus mutates into a form that is any combination of more transmissive and virulent. This new form of the flu then has the potential to cause a flu pandemic.

Prevention and treatment
Globalisation has somewhat increased the risk of a worldwide disease outbreak. However, improved medical and hygiene practices today have helped greatly reduce its effects. This is in addition to the development of vaccines that prepare the body's immune system against an actual threat.

The World Health Organization (WHO) is currently at the forefront in the containment of disease epidemics. A 'brick wall' defense by a country against a pandemic has historically proven to be ineffective in reducing spread inside individual countries, particularly where their health systems are underfunded and underdeveloped. WHO then helps to coordinate an effort to, among other things, provide humanitarian assistance to those countries to help halt local epidemics.

Consequences of a pandemic

• Mass illness
• Mass deaths
• Disruption of social order

Conclusions

• 2012-compatible? No
• Will the world end with a bang or whimper? Whimper
• Armageddon or Ragnarok? Neither

Bibliography

• Dean, Tim (2008), 'Doomsday', Cosmos, no. 22.
• God's Wrath (2010), television program, Discovery Channel.
• How bird flu jumps to humans | COSMOS magazine (2008), newspaper article, Luna Media, viewed 22 June 2011, <http://www.cosmosmagazine.com/news/1773/how-bird-flu-jumps-humans>.
• Lacey, Marc, McNeil, Donald (2009), 'Spectre of pandemic', Sydney Morning Herald, 26 April, viewed 22 June 2011, <http://www.smh.com.au/world/spectre-of-pandemic-20090425-ait6.html>.
• Swine flu: the facts | COSMOS magazine (2008), newspaper article, Luna Media, viewed 22 June 2011, <http://www.cosmosmagazine.com/features/online/2723/swine-flu-facts>.
• Surviving Disaster: Pandemic (2009), television program, Discovery Channel.
• World Health Organization (2001), A framework for global outbreak alert and response,
publication, World Health Organization, viewed 26 June 2011, <http://www.who.int/csr/resources/publications/surveillance/WHO_CDS_CSR_2000_2/en/index.html>.

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