Random Ramblings to 8 August 2009

Archivist
A person who maintains the material in an archive. This can involve collecting, organising and assessing the records. Among their skills, they show expertise in preserving the physical media on which information is contained. In WoW, Auriaya is the archivist for the secrets of Ulduar.

Information asymmetry
A concept in economics which suggests that buyers and sellers in a real-world market cannot find each other easily (lacking information about each others' presence). One needs to search for the other before a trade can occur. However, doing extra searching will come at a cost, so these costs should be balanced against the benefits expected in deciding which to do.

Archavon's Parade

Which better way to Wintergrasp's Titan Relic than a beeline? The Scourge successfully employed this strategy in invading the Sunwell, after all (though their sheer numbers may have had something to do with it). This 160-man raid may now be trying to squeeze through an instance portal to Archavon...


It would be interesting to note Blizzard's use of perspective in this shot (where parallel lines seem to meet at a certain vanishing point). The above annotated image is provided for convenience.

There's Something About Lady RNG

Computerised environments intrinsically lack randomness, so a random number generator (RNG) must be used where an unpredictable result is required. In effect, the RNG works on randomly generated data provided to generate a seemingly random number. Since this piece of programming code decides your fate and destiny in WoW in several cases (just like how Fortuna (Lady Luck) decides your fate and destiny in real life), it helps to know a bit about probability!

The golden rule of probability
Probability is that branch of mathematics that deals with random phenomena to (among other things) determine how likely it will act in a certain way. It is important to know that, for truly random phenomena:

Random does not necessarily mean even or fair!

My Computer and I: Connection Degeneration

My desktop is a 3-year-old Dell Dimension 8400. It was high-end at the time it was bought, but regardless is starting to show its age. I have upgraded some of its parts since then to keep playing World of Warcraft bearable, but of course it will need to be replaced eventually.

I have had my share of computer problems with my current computer (not suggesting that Dell is necessarily a poor computer assembler, mind you). Other than high school computing studies, I have had no formal training in maintaining a computer, so I usually need to end up experimenting when something goes wrong. Without further ado...

The Problem:
World of Warcraft's latency would be satisfactory when first logging on, but would increase over time, eventually causing WoW to disconnect.

Not All Hitpoints are Created Equal

There is always question on whether the output of healing meters (healing charts) can be used in indicating a healer's performance. Unlike points of damage, where heals go matters. While everyone has use for a heal, some players will need it more than others.
 Healing meters (such as the 'Healing done' component of Recount) collect raw figures from the combat log. It becomes easy to assert, from skimming over the healing chart, that all hitpoints (HP) are created equal, with all players appreciating 1 HP of healing equally. However, I would not.

1. Factoring in absorptions
When a player inevitably takes damage, a healer can respond to it in any of two ways:

WoW Mathematics: Your guild bank donation

Aim: To calculate the value of a deposit of gold to a guild bank (gbank) that discounts sales at a given rate.

Summary:

• A donation of G gold to a gbank with a decimal discount rate of r will be worth G/r gold. This means that G is multiplied by 1/r, the reciprocal of the discount rate. Keep in mind that Full price = Discounted price + Discount.
• As long as the discount rate is less than 100%, the donation is worth more than the amount donated (even in pure money terms)!
• A gbank donation's impact will grow according to the sum of a geometric series and approach a limiting value.

The given:

• The discount rate is fixed.
• There is no cost in performing transactions and the full proceeds of a gbank sale are deposited back in.
• All gold is used in buying other resources for resale. No gold is dispensed as a repair allowance (though it can be factored into the discount rate).

The detail:
Consider a gbank deposit of G gold. It is used in buying (for example) enchanting materials worth G gold. They are sold to a guild member at a discount rate of r, so the undiscounted proportion of the price is:

1 - r

The proceeds from that sale are:

G × (1 - r) = G(1 - r) gold

The proceeds are then used for buying potions worth G(1 - r) gold. There potions are sold at a discounted price of:

G(1 - r) × (1 - r) = G(1 - r)² gold

Continuing this process for n terms, we get the following progression of values:

G, G(1 - r), G(1 - r)², G(1 - r)³, ... , G(1 - r)^{n - 1}

The geometric series 1 + 1/2 + 1/4 + ... , with its value represented by area.

This is in fact a geometric progression with common ratio (1 - r) and first term B. Note that, while the amount deposited diminishes, it keeps making an impact with each gbank sale. The total impact for n sales is the following sum of the corresponding geometric series:

S(n) = G(1 - (1 - r)ⁿ) ÷ (1 - (1 - r)) = G(1 - (1 - r)ⁿ)/r gold

As n » ∞ , (1 - r)ⁿ » 0 , and (1 - (1 - r)ⁿ) » 1 . So, the total impact approaches the following limiting value as resales are conducted repeatedly with that amount:

S(∞) = G/r gold

Here is an example. Say 100 gold is donated to a gbank with a discount rate of 25% or 1/4. That donation will be worth:

100 ÷ 1/4 = 100 × 4 = 400 gold

How Hitler became Chancellor and Führer

Since Adolf Hitler is a strongly condemned political leader, the circumstances around his rise to power are very interesting. Germany's desperation post-World War I, the Great Depression, hyperinflation and emerging communism promoted this process.

Suffering after WWI
WWI ended when the Treaty of Versailles was signed. In it, the Allied countries required Germany to pay war reparations, surrender territory and reduce the power of its defence forces. These provisions (along with a declaration to surrender) were a large blow to Germany's national pride. Also, the indecisiveness of the democratic Weimar Republic meant that laws took a long time to be passed.


This 1000 Reichsmark note was overstamped to a face value of 1 000 000 000 Reichsmark.

The German economy suffered in two ways during some of this period. The country was required to pay currency as part of its reparations, which was financed substantially by printing extra currency. This caused hyperinflation of the Reichsmark, even during the Great Depression following the US stock market crash. Face values fell well below the cost of the paper, leading to (among other things) persons' burning it as firewood during famine winters. Even though it ended after three years (with the introduction of the Rentenmark), a lack of popular confidence was cast on the financial system (substantially comprised of Jews).

Enter Hitler

Hitler's DAP (predecessor to the Nazi Party) membership card.

Seeking participation in politics, Hitler joined the German Workers' Party (progressing to the NSDAP or Nazi Party), which was notably far-right in the political spectrum. It promoted (among other things) nationalism, anti-communism, economic recovery and abandoning the Treaty (though the anti-Semitism can be observed in the rhetoric). He possessed a demonstrated charisma and easily appealed to most of Germany's citizens. Hitler eventually became the sole leader of the party.

The following circumstances existed for the Weimar Republic:

• The system of government at this time was parliamentary republic under constitution, which made for several political parties to contend for the popular vote. In it, there was a President (elected by popular vote) who ceremonially signed bills into law, and a Chancellor (approved by parliament after nomination by the President) who led the party in government.
• The Weimar Constitution codified civil liberties such as habeas corpus (freedom from unlawful detainment), freedom of expression, freedom of association, privacy of telecommunication and protection of property and home.
• The Weimar Constitution allowed the President to issue decrees (which did not need parliamentary approval) in times of emergency.
• The Weimar Constitution placed limits on the laws that can be made, and any deviation was considered a constitutional amendment requiring a two-thirds majority in the Reichstag parliament.

The fire at the Reichstag
Das Andere Deutschland was rendered verbot (forbidden) under the Reichstag Fire Decree.

On January 1933, Hitler was sworn in as Chancellor after nomination by President Paul von Hindenburg. A month later, a fire occurred in the Reichstag building. Communist Marinus van der Lubbe was found inside after the fire was extinguished, which the Nazi Party used as evidence of a Communist uprising. President von Hindenburg signed the Reichstag Fire Decree into law a day later, which allowed the beforementioned civil liberties to be suspended, so as to quickly arrest communists suspected to be involved and ban the Communist Party. However, Hitler (being head of the executive) also used the Decree to arrest anyone and suppress any publication deemed unfriendly to Nazi ideology.

Enabling Hitler to act

Hitler (wearing light clothing) presents his speech promoting the Enabling Act.

The Nazi Party started drafting an Enabling Act on March 1933, which would allow them to pass laws without needing it to go through the parliamentary process (as required by the Constitution). However, because it would allow deviation from the Constitution, it needed to be passed with a two-thirds majority as an amendment. On voting on the bill later in the month, support was won to achieve the majority, with the Communist Party banned at the time and the Social Democratic Party the only party to vote against it.

The perfect storm
The German people wanted the former glory of their nation to be restored. A communist happened to be found in the burnt Reichstag building. The Decree suspended several basic civil liberties, while the Enabling Act diminished the importance of the parliamentary process. Both could be renewed when close to expiry. Hitler was the sole leader of the Nazi Party and could wield both instruments as a dictator. The senile President von Hindenburg seeked minimal participation in politics, and when he passed, Hitler assumed his powers. It comes to little surprise that Hitler's rise to power was entirely legal and compatible with popular German opinion (however much it contained desperation).


A chocolate model of the Reichstag building, which would have melted under fire.